Rubio Surges (in his dreams)

Marco Rubio swept to a huge victory in Tuesday’s Nevada Republican caucus, finishing an astonishing second place and building on his failure to win or come close to winning any primary or caucus so far this year. Let’s see now: four events, and Rubio has finished third, fifth, second and now second again. It seems the little boy wonder just can’t seem to get over the hump, in spite of his pronouncement that each return has indicated his growing appeal.

The problem with that would be that there seems little evidence of growing appeal at this stage. Rubio has yet to articulate a campaign that appeals to more than a narrow base of supporters. He appears as an embryonic candidate whose main reason for existence is to oppose Donald Trump. And we see how well that’s working out.

After crushing Rubio and Ted Cruz in Nevada, Trump appears ever-more on his way to the nomination, at least based on polls in upcoming primary states. Rubio and Cruz seem ineffective as rivals, largely because, in my view, neither is remotely deserving to be President (Cruz because he is dangerous unprincipled, Rubio because he is boyishly unqualified).

That’s not to say this can’t change. The inevitability of Trump is hard to believe, no matter the hard evidence from GOP voters. But given the level of opposition, where can he be stopped? And how is anyone who can manage that task going to stand up in a general election?

Pundits talk about where Jeb Bush’s money and voters will go now that he’s out of the race, but that seems more and more pointless. Outspending Trump isn’t going to defeat him, and Jeb Bush had so few voters that it’s doubtful even if they coalesced around Rubio or Cruz — and really, is that likely??? — I don’t see any significant differences in the outcome.

So Rubio can continue proclaiming victory in his defeats, but like most everything else in his campaign, it’s really hot air. If he’s going to do anything, he’d better do it soon, really soon.