Assessing New Hampshire

The New Hampshire primary is over. And for those of us living in the Granite State, the long nightmare has ended. The results weren’t surprising based on the polls, and the biggest news probably came from the losers, not the winners. So let’s look back and briefly try to assess what happened and what it means going forward.

Donald Trumped the GOP field, and Bernie cruised to a victory over Hillary. Those are the headlines for the winners. Trump did what he said he would do: collect twice as many votes as his nearest opponent, who somewhat surprisingly turned out to be John Kasich. Bernie won and practically obliterated Hillary in the process, a result that would have seemed impossible six months ago.

The Clintons have always claimed to love New Hampshire for its support in previous primaries, but Hillary probably has little love for the state today. And the overwhelming vote for Bernie was not merely an endorsement of a neighbor (Bernie’s from Vermont, remember?) but a rejection of Hillary, especially among younger voters which Bernie won over with over 80%. That has to be troubling to the Clinton camp.

This does not mean that Hillary has lost the race, however. She maintains a strong campaign organization in upcoming primary states and has a large bankroll. She’s a smart and tested campaigner who is still the Democratic favorite — but she does not look indestructible; in fact, she seems more vulnerable than ever. And so I’d look for some kind of campaign re-start for her, perhaps one that looks ever more strongly to minorities and ethnic voters where Bernie presumably is weaker. Whatever happens, the Democratic race is not going to be settled anytime soon.

And neither is the Republican primary battle. We can, however, say good-bye to several candidates. Chris Christie, who invested an enormous amount of time and money in New Hampshire over the last eight months, wound up in single digits. His campaign is over.

And Carly Fiorina, the GOP witch, is done along with Ben Carson. Both drew scant attention from any voters in the Granite State. And while both might decide to continue their bizarrely ineffective campaigns they will be regarded only as hopeless losers.

As for who’s left, well, Marco Rubio’s aura has been shattered. His campaign was rudely interrupted by his faltering debate appearance and continued robotic remarks afterward, and he is going to have trouble resurrecting any image of an intelligent, capable candidate. No, it may be the once-disregarded Jeb Bush, or possibly Kasich, who emerges from the upcoming primaries as a real challenger to Trump and Cruz. The latter did poorly in New Hampshire, as expected, but he is likely to collect lots of votes in the southern primaries with their cadre of evangelical voters.

Stay tuned. Maybe eventually there will be some good news for us…..